Global Political and Social Awareness - The Consequences of a Second Trump Presidency

Donald Trump has won the presidential election in November of 2024 and is the first one since Grover Cleveland to win two non-consecutive four-year terms in American history. Trump's first presidential term has been marked with unbelievable controversies, scandals, and an unforgettable insurrection on Capitol Hill in an attempt to overthrow the government and its constitution after Biden had won the presidency in November of 2020. Many people around the world and in the United States of America would've thought that having Trump as the president for his first term was merely a mistake. But I was shocked and so many others were as well when he won the 2024 election. What kind of foreseeable consequences will this have in America and around the world based on what we know now? Let's find out. 

The American economy is going to fluctuate insurmountably under Trump's second administration. The first one will be the imposition of tariffs on imported goods coming into the United States of America. Trump wants to do this because he believes Americans are being somehow threatened by outside forces that could hurt American businesses and the economy but nothing could be further from the truth. The implementation of tariffs is a protectionist approach that should always be used cautiously under extreme circumstances. I, for one, believe tariffs aren't a good thing to have. For example, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act in 1930 was the second highest tariff placed on imported goods into America, exceeded only by the Tariff of 1828. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1930 placed a tariff on 20,000 goods coming into the country. Retaliatory tariffs were put in place by other countries directly affected by the passing of the 1930 tariffs. As you would've likely guessed, this occurred during the Great Depression. Many economists and economic historians generally believe the installation of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1930 greatly worsened the effects of the Great Depression which caused it to drag on for much of the decade in America and worldwide until the outbreak of the Second World War. Now, Trump is threatening to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods. And this will likely branch out to other countries that Trump sees as a threat to the American economy. The talks of tariffs are already having an effect as we speak even before Trump officially becomes president in January of 2025. The Canadian dollar is taking a tumble do to this announcement. One company in Pennsylvania is cutting its employees' annual Christmas bonus to stockpile on goods for manufacturing. In fact, many businesses will have to buy lots of materials and resources before these tariffs start having an impact. This will naturally cost a lot of money. When the tariffs do hit, it will cost a lot more money to procure products and bring them into the country. Retaliatory tariffs will further expand the problem even more. These effects will fall back on the end-consumer with higher prices at businesses. If that wasn't enough, Trump's controversial and extreme immigration policies will add another deafening blow to the economy. Many migrants, and immigrants work at my sectors across America, providing an invaluable service to many key areas, especially in agriculture. Trump's plan to deport migrants, immigrants and possibly even naturalized citizens will leave a huge void that won't be easy to close at all. In fact, the migrants' and immigrants' contributions to the American economy will gradually disappear and will disappear entirely when deportation raids come in. Without these workers, businesses will have cut back on operations and increase their prices. This will have a negative impact on the end-consumer again, causing prices to soar in grocery stores. There are many poor people out there who will have to choose between paying their monthly rent or mortgage or buying food. The less they buy, the more the companies will suffer and have to announce lay-offs or even shutdown their operations causing people to be out of work. The same problem will persist in Canada and Mexico as well. For the life of me, I just can't understand how any Canadian could be a Trump supporter knowing that these consequences will hurt the country they were born and grew up in. 

Trump has already installed tariffs during his first administration, most notably a 20% tariff on Canadian softwood lumber, a 25% tariff on steel and a 10% tax on aluminum. Canada retaliated by issuing tariffs on $16.6 billion dollars worth of American steel, aluminum and hundreds of other products. Trump hated NAFTA between Canada, USA and Mexico and had it removed in order to broker a new deal which became the Canada-U.S.-Mexico agreement which was agreed by all parties in 2019. Consequently, the tariffs were lifted. It wasn't until 2020 that the agreement took effect. But why is Trump threatening tariffs again when he has this agreement in place? He brokered it and I thought he was satisfied with it too. I have no idea. 

Another major problem that can occur is the threat to women's rights. Trump nominated and brought in many far-right supreme court judges to overturn Roe vs Wade during his first presidency. This ended the women's right to have abortion carried out. This has encouraged many states in America to issue abortion bans. In many cases, women can't have abortions after they had been raped. They will be forced to carry the child until it's time to give birth to it. The health of the mother is at stake here. No form of government has a right to decide what a person can do with his or her body. The fact that the judicial branch of government could do this is a travesty. This is a serious case of government overreach that has to be addressed one day. Thankfully though, the issue remains a state-issue meaning a state can decide if abortion can be banned or not, but a large number of them have made it a crime for women to have one already. The rights of the LGTBQIA+ will also face some tall hurdles too considering if Project 2025 takes shape. This project aims to promote conservative and right-wing policies to reshape the federal government of the United States and consolidate executive power if Trump wins the presidential election which he has. The project asserts a controversial interpretation of the unitary executive theory which means that the executive branch of government will be entirely under control of the President. It also proposes to reclassify tens of thousands of federal civil service workers as political appointees in order to replace them with people loyal to the president. I believe you serve the country first, not the president. The project also seeks to infuse the government and society with conservative Christian values. These plans characterize Project 2025 as an authoritarian, Christian nationalist plan to steer the U.S. towards autocracy. It will also undermine the rule of law, separation of powers, separation of Church and State and civil liberties. This is really scary and we'll see if Trump is interested in giving it some serious thought. Then again, he wants his administration to be loyal to him even the Generals of the Army and Admirals of the Navy. Putting him first, not the country is his belief. If they don't, he'll punish them and likely punish the prosecutors who went after him because of his scandals. Trump loves dictators and we see why he does. If Project 2025 does go through, it will make him one.  

Another consequence is his beleaguered opinion on NATO and what will happen to Ukraine. Trump has threatened to have America withdraw from NATO but hasn't done it yet. I also highly suspect Trump's administration will halt all funding and delivery of weapons to Ukraine. We know Trump and Putin like each other and Trump will probably broker a deal to end the war in Ukraine in favor of Russia. If this happens, this will give Putin enormous leeway to invade other countries which is totally unacceptable. There will be more destruction and death all because Putin will have the understanding that he could do whatever he wants when Trump is in power. Of course, this is merely a theory in today's terms, but I believe Ukraine's future will remain dismal with Trump in power in 2025 and onward. 

A lot will likely happen in the first one-hundred days of Trump's presidency. He promises to issue many decrees once he takes office and they will be the foundation of his government. There is just a lot of uncertainty and unpredictability right now that we don't really know what's going to happen and that's concerning. I believe the next four years will see a lot of change for the worst.